Off to the Races
Posted 15 weeks 5 hours ago byIn the first turn it's New York Ghoully trailing Hillarosa followed by Huckster, Romormino, Chosen One, Old Yeller and Dark Horse 200-1 odds
Rounding the second Ghoully is Down!, Chosen One takes the lead Huckster, Hillarosa neck and neck, then Old Yeller, Romormino and Dark Horse.
Turn three Chosen One neck and neck with Hillarosa, Old Yeller gaining, Huckster &Romormino fall by the wayside, Darkhorse never in the race. Now a 3 horse contest.
Down the home stretch it's ...Don't you just love a good contest.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php













Thoughts
my understanding
Submitted on August 21st, 2008 by PabloMy understanding is that when you do a poll which is nothing more than a representive type of polling that you have to have enough of a sample which would reflect direct results.
Based on polling numbers over the last year and applying the results against actual voter turnout and actual results show that the polls are too small.
I suspect that for a poll to be really viable it would have to be somewhere around 10k to 20k. 489 which are samples taken against a speed 500 is no where possible of a reliable poll.
Thus MSNBC, AP and CNN should stop their polling as they have be abismal.
In the largest of the polls which was under 5k had the closest to the end result of being only 7% off actual verses 29% for the smaller sampling ones.
Thus polls which predict a certain result should fall within 3% of the result. If it does not then two things happened. 1. not large enough of a sampling or that the data gathered was biased and flawed.
Yep sample #'s are small
Submitted on August 21st, 2008 by rom12921Some media have given up doing their own polls. CNN's poll is a poll of polls (surveying method, not nationality- poll of Poles)
From what I remember from statistics, the polling size has to be of adequate size not to significantly change the reults of the poll. I assume most get within 2 standard deviations (95% + or -) judging by the margin of error.
I noticed something interesting
Submitted on August 21st, 2008 by PabloThat the total number of people polled is very very small as compared to the whole.
NBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, Time, AP rarely get more than 1000 and most of the time its less than a 1000 people polled.
When you look at the polls which the most people then you see something which is no secret.
This nation is divided along party lines. Thus you see a dead heat, or a one or two point difference when you look at the larger pool of people.
The smaller the group polled the more wide one candidate has over the other. Which means that that poll was made to be that way.
But the polls that everyone is point to is just not large enough of a sample to be respective of the nation as a whole.
All these polls would get an F in common college statistics.
The polls sampling is just plainly too small to be worth something.
So the next time I hear a candidate say that the poll is this or that, then its clear that the candidate is off target and is fooling himself and not working for the people.
Thanks
Submitted on August 20th, 2008 by John 2000good poll reference point. I think I will bookmark for later down the stretch so neck-in-neck. Oh,my God, he threw a shoe ...
Not as fun here though, since it's 'illegal' to bet.
geeez ... remember when illegal actualy meant something? sorry to digress.
just thanks.